How the intelligence is built

Trade data

Featured commodities use a reconciled trade dataset (CEPII BACI, built on UN Comtrade), with UN Comtrade preliminary and monthly figures and WITS tariffs. Any other HS code is queried from UN Comtrade through the S Marketing server when the analysis runs; responses are cached for up to 30 days. Where a destination does not report, partner countries' reported exports to it are used and labelled mirror statistics.

Values are in US dollars as declared (imports usually CIF, exports usually FOB); quantities are net weight.

Trade routes

A route is not assumed. It is built from product, HS code, origin, destination, cargo characteristics, lot size, transport constraints and documented trade evidence, and every point on it has its own status:

Verified

Multiple reliable sources, official statistics by mode of transport, or direct shipment evidence support the route.

Supported

A reliable industry or company source supports it; direct shipment evidence is incomplete. A company declaration is never rated above Supported.

Inferred

Calculated from geography, port capabilities and documented port services; not verified. Drawn dashed.

Unavailable

Reliable evidence for a specific physical route is insufficient. No route is drawn.

The route is shown as a chain: production origin → inland origin → loading port or border crossing → terminal → each transport leg → destination port → final market. The production origin comes from the route evidence, from the region the visitor selects, or — labelled inferred — from the documented producing site nearest the export gateway. A capital city or a country's centre is never used as an origin. Where the evidence does not name the destination port, the destination's ports are ranked by documented evidence (commodity handling, cargo class, vessel histories and documented services from the same loading port); ports with equal evidence are all shown.

Sea routes follow navigable water on a 0.25° grid derived from the Natural Earth 1:50m coastline, with straits, canals and rivers followed along their centrelines. Land corridors keep to dry land. Every route is a representative trade route: no live vessel tracking is connected, so no vessel position is claimed.

Transit time is shown only when a source states it for the two ends of the route; it is never computed from map distance. Freight is quote dependent unless a current, sourced rate exists.

Ports and production origins

Ports come from the S Marketing port database, built from verified national records — Iran, Kuwait, the Gulf states and the Caspian littoral — with each port's UN/LOCODE, position, role (commercial, industrial, energy), documented cargo capabilities, sources and date of verification; other countries use the NGA World Port Index. A capability is recorded only where a source documents it. A port that exists is not proof that a commodity uses it.

Production origins (province, city, named producer) are researched from official, industry and company sources and cross-checked before use.

Price intelligence

Customs trade values, the implied average import value (declared value ÷ declared quantity), published market quotations and benchmarks (World Bank Pink Sheet) are different measures. They are shown and labelled separately and never merged into a single "market price".

Seasonality

A monthly pattern is shown only when at least three complete years of monthly data exist, as lower, moderate or higher activity. Otherwise the report says that the seasonality signal is unavailable from the selected dataset.

AI marketing suggestion

A deterministic, rule-based comparison of the selected market with other importers of the same code: import value, growth, the origin's existing share and headroom. Markets where goods of the origin are recorded as prohibited are excluded. When no alternative is clearly supported, the report says so. The suggestion is an interpretation for further research — not a forecast, and not a promise of demand, buyers, price or profit.

No AI or language model is connected: the rules are fixed and published here, and the same data always gives the same suggestion.

Photographs and flags

Product photographs are supplied by S Marketing or used under their stated licence, and each report credits them. Photographs show a commodity or its handling in general; they do not show a named shipment, supplier or buyer. Country flags are from the flag-icons project (MIT licence).

Sources and data status

Source hierarchy: official government and port authorities; customs and international trade statistics (UN Comtrade, ITC); international organisations (World Bank); reputable commodity intelligence; verified shipment databases; company and trader sources. Each statement shows its source type, data period and date of last update. Nothing is labelled live or real-time unless the connected source is.